EPL Betting: The Battle To Beat The Drop
As we reach the March international window, it gives us the perfect opportunity to reflect on what is going on at the bottom of the Premier League and although we have previously discussed this season’s relegation battle, a lot has changed since then.
Because for all the punters who confidently placed a wager on Newcastle, such a bet is no longer assured and with Eddie Howe taking over the reins at St James’ Park, it is fair to say that a huge transformation has taken place on Tyneside.
One that is almost the equivalent of night changing to day and although critics will point to the £100m that was spent during the January transfer window, it is unfair to say that their revival has only come about through money.
Because when you look at the likes of Joelinton and Ryan Fraser, they are just two players who were previously playing for a languishing Newcastle side and since the arrival of Howe as manager, they found an extra level to their own game.
To the point where Newcastle find themselves just six points from safety – or at least that is how it looks right now and although they do have a tough end to the campaign, their momentum should be enough to get them over the line.
While for those who did back Newcastle to go down, they will be wishing that the season ended at the turn of 2021 into 2022 and if you still feel that relegation will consume them in the end, their odds are as long as 50/1.
A STICKY SITUATION
Which means if Newcastle are to stay up this season, there are still three teams that will go down and although the likes of Norwich and Watford automatically spring to mind, there is one other outfit that was not named previously.
That outfit is none other than Everton and when you consider the plight that Frank Lampard and his newly inherited players currently find themselves in, they are by no means guaranteed survival in May.
Admittedly the mess has not all been Lampard’s to deal with and Everton were quickly becoming a shipwreck under former manager Rafa Benitez. However, it must be noted that the former Derby and Chelsea boss has done little to stem the tide at Goodison Park.
Just 12 points from the last 63 on offer. A pitiful amount in the context of any Premier League season and although Everton do have players that look good on paper, paper is not the surface that wins football matches and Everton are largely not winning football matches right now.
While a look at Everton’s January transfer strategy also says a lot, as the purchase of Dele Alli from Tottenham and the loan arrival of Donny Van Der Beek have had little impact on an already struggling side.
Yes, they may have earned a huge win over Newcastle in recent times, but they then followed that with an FA Cup defeat to Crystal Palace and although that reverse will not cost them anything in the way of league points, it will have seriously dented the morale of an already fragile side.
Which is why betting on Everton to be relegated could still be one of the value bets between now and the end of the season and at odds of 9/4 for a first ever demotion out of the Premier League, it is an incredibly tempting price right now.
LEEDS LEEDS LEEDS
While although the sacking of Marcelo Bielsa was something of a surprise., it was not that big a shock at the same time and with the Elland Road outfit conceding 20 goals in the month of February alone, something would have to give.
Something that saw the legendary Argentine given his marching orders and with the Leeds board needing to act fast, it would see Jesse Marsch subsequently installed as the next managerial incumbent.
To many the appointment of Marsch was deemed unnecessary and Leeds were still in a good enough position to survive any relegation battle that came their way. Then again, you could also say that Bielsa had reached the end of the road with this current Leeds crop.
A fresh voice was needed to revive a tiring group of players and it is one that now comes with a distinct American accent – an accent that is somewhat distrusted within the confines of the Premier League.
Regardless of the tone of voice, the message is still ultimately the same and the message is to go out and win Premier League encounters. Something that Leeds failed to do against both Leicester and Aston Villa.
Two games in charge for Marsch, zero in the way of league points and with the following visit of Norwich being nothing less than a relegation six-pointer, their eventual win was as huge as it was dramatic.
A 91st minute equaliser for Norwich was then superseded by a 94th minute winner for Leeds and although the three points would have been hugely precious, it is the manner of victory which means so much more.
Especially as the same level of drama was on show just a week later and with Leeds finding themselves 2-0 down at Wolves, even a point would have been considered a good result at the end of 90 minutes.
However, one point somehow turned into three and with successive wins under their belts, the clouds are starting to break over Elland Road. While at odds of 3/1 to get relegated, it may be worth looking elsewhere for your bets in this market.
THE WORST OF THE REST
With Norwich succumbing to such an agonising defeat to Leeds, you now get the feeling that their relegation is a case of if and not when and the way in which they lost, might just have taken any remaining wind out of their sails.
While Watford will still feel that they have some chance of survival and if they could win at home as well as on the road, then the odds of Roy Hodgson keeping the Hornets up would then increase considerably.
As for Burnley, their extended stint in the Premier League looks like it could soon be coming to an end and if that does prove to be the case, then the Turf Moor outfit could end up saying goodbye to Sean Dyche as well.
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